• Vol. XII, Núm. 2 • Mayo-Agosto 2018 •

Abstract Resumen

The political system in which it is possible to observe the similarities

El sistema político en el que es posible observar las similitudes y

and differences between groups for and against presidential candidates

diferencias entre los grupos a favor y en contra de los candidatos

based on processes of negotiation, mediation, conciliation and presidenciales basados en procesos de negociación, mediación,

arbitration around the management and administration of Information conciliación y arbitraje en torno a la gestión y administración de las

Technologies and Communication is known as governance. This is a

Tecnologías de la Información y la Comunicación se conoce como

growing phenomenon as local or federal elections approach and digital

gobernanza. Este es un fenómeno en crecimiento a medida que se

networks are exacerbated as instruments for the promotion or acercan las elecciones locales o federales y las redes digitales se

dissuasion of a candidate. In this sense, the objective of the study was exacerban como instrumentos para la promoción o disuasión de un

to optimize the Governance instrument of the Cyber Political Culture

candidato. En este sentido, el objetivo del estudio fue optimizar el

of Carreón (2016) in order to pay the reliability and validity of it; explore instrumento de la Cultura Ciber-Política de Carreón (2016) para pagar

the relationship between preferences and expectations regarding la confiabilidad y validez de la misma; explore la relación entre las

voting intentions in a non-probabilistic sample of students using digital preferencias y las expectativas con respecto a las intenciones de voto

networks. From a structural model it was found that the consensus en una muestra no probabilística de estudiantes que usan redes digitales.

expectation factor determined the intentions to vote. The scope and

A partir de un modelo estructural se encontró que el factor de

limits of the exploratory factor analysis of main axes with a simple and expectativa de consenso determinó las intenciones de votar. Se discuten

oblique promax rotation regarding the confirmation of an orthogonal el alcance y los límites del análisis factorial exploratorio de los ejes

structure are discussed. principales con una rotación promax simple y oblicua con respecto a

la confirmación de una estructura ortogonal.

Keywords: Internet, representations, preferences, expectations,

intentions, model.

Palabras clave:

Internet, representaciones, preferencias, expectativas,

intenciones, modelo.

Governance of electoral preferences,

consensus and voting intention

Gobernanza de las preferencias electorales, consenso

e intención de voto

NRIQUE

ARTÍNEZ

-M

UÑOZ

, M

ARÍA DE

OURDES

ORALES

-F

LORES

Y CRUZ GARCÍA-LIRIOS3,4

Recibido: Junio 19, 2018 Aceptado: Noviembre 6, 2018

_________________________________

1 UNIVERSIDAD AUTÓNOMA DEL ESTADO DE HIDALGO. Carr. Pachuca - Actopan Km. 4.5, Campo de Tiro. C.P. 42039. Pachuca de Soto, Hgo., México

Tel. (01 771) 717-2000.

2 UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL AUTÓNOMA DE MÉXICO. Escuela Nacional de Trabajo Social. Avenida Universidad 3000, C.U. Ciudad de México.

C. P. 04350. Tel. (01 55) 5622-8771.

3 UNIVERSIDAD AUTÓNOMA DEL ESTADO DE MÉXICO. Unidad Académica Profesional Huehuetoca. Cuatro Milpas 197, Benito Juárez, Nezahualcóyotl,

Estado de México. C. P. 57000. Tel. (55) 57437003.

4 Dirección electrónica del autor de correspondencia: cgarcial213@profesor.uaemex.mx

Educación y Humanidades Artículo arbitrado

• Vol. XII, Núm. 2 • Mayo-Agosto 2018 •

ENRIQUE MARTÍNEZ-MUÑOZ, MARÍA DE LOURDES MORALES-FLORES Y CRUZ GARCÍA-LIRIOS: Governance of electoral preferences, consensus

and voting intention

Introduction

he objective of the research was to establish the reliability and validity of an

instrument that measures expectations and intentions of voting in a sample of Internet

students in order to establish the linear relationships that determine the decision to

vote based on perceptions related to costs and benefits, as well as expectations of insecurity of

citizens and distrust of their authorities regarding the management and administration of public

safety.

In the framework of presidential elections, the

system of negotiation, mediation, conciliation and

arbitration between actors involved in the

management and administration of public resources

and services is known as governance. In the case of

an early electoral contest, governance is a

phenomenon that reflects electoral preferences,

perceptions of consensus and intentions to vote for

parties, candidates and democratic systems.

In the case of the effects of the anticipated

electoral contest in digital networks such as Facebook,

Twitter, YouTube or Instagram, these are assumed as

instruments for the promotion of candidates and

political platforms. It is a proselytist that generates

expectations and voting intentions based on electoral

preferences, perhaps established in traditional media

such as television, radio, newspapers or films, but

when filtered through digital networks, they

propitiate a scenario of electoral debate that, for the

purposes of the present study allow a diagnosis of

the relationship that these determining factors of the

elections in the near future.

Social psychology, through the models of

reasoned action and planned behaviour, has

influenced the construction of an information

psychology (Abu et al., 2014). Both models start from

the assumption that behaviour is determined by the

relationship between beliefs, attitudes, perceptions

and intentions (García, 2007). It is a process that, in

the context of the information generated on the

Internet, explains consumer decisions based on

rational, deliberate, planned and systematic

processing.

However, psychosocial models have been

modified to adjust their relationships to information

processing on the Internet. These are the cases of the

Technology Acceptance Model, the Trade Adoption

Model and the Electronic Consumption Model (Gamal

and Gebba, 2013). These models have incorporated

the psychosocial variables of beliefs, attitudes,

perceptions and intentions that were proposed to

explain efficient, effective and effective behaviour

(García, 2008).

Although Internet access is concomitant with the

increase of users of social networks, these focus on

Facebook and Twitter not only for ease of use, but

also for the usefulness of their protocols when it

comes to disseminating personalized information

(Sandoval and Saucedo, 2010). Social networks are

personalized instances of information, but the

information disseminated in them requires

computational skills, search and information

processing skills, as well as storage and dissemination

capacities (Teh et al., 2010).

Consequently, the digital divide involves not only

differences between those who access digital media

and those who are marginalized or excluded, it

connotes differences between Internet users seeking

information for their entertainment and Internet

users who process information for their knowledge

and innovation (Fenoll, 2011).

Whereby Internet users are attached to a system

of academic or professional training that forces them

to seek information and process it to show

meaningful learning (Wong et al., 2013).

The relevance of beliefs understood as general

categories of information extends to the formation

of defined attitudes such as specific categories of

information, perceptions of catastrophe risk or

perceptions of usefulness of information assumed as

ENRIQUE MARTÍNEZ-MUÑOZ, MARÍA DE LOURDES MORALES-FLORES Y CRUZ GARCÍA-LIRIOS: Governance of electoral preferences, consensus

and voting intention

• Vol. XII, Núm. 2 • Mayo-Agosto 2018 •

expectations that allow to anticipate scenarios of

uncertainty, as well as the intentions of using the

Internet to most likely process the information that

is generated.

It is the relationships between the psychosocial

variables that make relevant their inclusion in the

psychological informational models because they

explain the information processing of events distant

or close to the daily life of Internet users (Yaghoubi

and Bahmani, 2010). In this way, the reception of

real-time information is a major factor in planning

strategies or lifestyles that lessen the impact of

catastrophes.

However, the tendency of the informational

psychological studies is to specify the psychosocial

variables since the beliefs are very general

categorizations and could not anticipate specific

behaviours, although the attitudes are more delimited

categorizations, they require of information

perceived to activate decisions of immediate action

(García et al., 2013).

Precisely because the intentions are decisive

probabilities of carrying out a rational, deliberate,

planned and systematic action, they predict the

emergence of behaviour, but the information

generated on the Internet leads to a more emotional

than rational process (García et al., 2013).

It is for this reason that the study of intentions

with emotional and rational dimensions seems

to be more pertinent in an unpredictable and

incommensurable scenario as would be the electoral

contests (García et al., 2013).

The measurement of political culture in areas

such as electronic networks has been carried out by

Carreón (2016) who proposed the Political

Cyberculture Scale (ECP-21) to explain the linear

relationship of three dimensions related to the

expectations and intentions of I vote in scenarios of

insecurity and before political contests in digital

networks.

However, the reliability and validity of the general

scale (alpha of, 680) and the subscales were low

(alphas of 652, 690 and 670 respectively) so that

adaptation to closer electoral scenarios can increase

their properties psychometric (Dorantes, 2014).

Precisely, in the process of building an electoral

agenda, understood as a scenario in which

expectations, dispositions and intentions of citizens

converge with respect to the image, reputation and

prestige of the authorities, a scenario is created that

encompasses the effects of political campaigns in the

preferences and suffrages of younger electorate and

reliable user of electronic networks such as Facebook,

Twitter, SnapChat, Instagram, YouTube and WhatsApp

(Paniagua, 2007).

In this sense, the electorate that attends more to

discourses than to images has been formed in a culture

of reasoning rather than the political image, but in

relation to its authorities, when this culture of

information verification and the contrast of ideas is

exacerbated, generates a symbolic process that

justifies the implementation of resources external to

the institutions (Chihú, 1997)

In such a scenario corruption is processed as an

inherent part of the political culture, which is why

the campaigns of denunciation, confrontation and

promotion of honesty have more effects than fear

campaigns focused on economic security or the

protection of integrity and the heritage (Dallorso and

Seghezzo, 2015).

The mass media in general and the electronic

networks in particular are sensitive to such an

electoral crossroads that goes from fear to

pacification, propitiating plausibility logics for the

electorate more exposed to the diffusion of images

and a logic of verifiability for the most enlightened

electorate which seeks to contrast information from

various sources to form a criterion (Delameza et al.,

2012).

Some studies show that the establishment of an

agenda and its effect of framing the likelihood or

verifiability are related to the electoral preferences,

the intention to vote and effective suffrage, but do

not delve into the analysis of the attributions in a

consensus scenario.

Other works have focused their interest on the

effects of framing unfavourable news to a region

when evidencing citizen insecurity, but have not

considered the effects of these messages on citizen

expectations of being harmed or benefited by «hard-

line» or «hard-line» policies «zero tolerance».

ENRIQUE MARTÍNEZ-MUÑOZ, MARÍA DE LOURDES MORALES-FLORES Y CRUZ GARCÍA-LIRIOS: Governance of electoral preferences, consensus

and voting intention

• Vol. XII, Núm. 2 • Mayo-Agosto 2018 •

Some researchers have shown the associations

between lifestyles and risky behaviours with

scenarios of insecurity or corruption, but have not

established the relationship between these

expectations with their electoral preferences, voting

decisions or effective suffrages.

Therefore, it is necessary to adapt the instrument

that measures the cyber politic culture and adjust it

to the theoretical relations between the expectations

and the intentions of voting in electoral scenarios.

Therefore, there will be significant differences

between the theoretical correlations of expectations

and voting intentions with respect to the empirical

correlations to be observed in the study sample.

Method

The scenario in which it took place was the

municipality of Huehuetoca, State of Mexico, prior to

the elections of 2017, where the electoral preference

was associated with the expectation that the electoral

conjuncture implies with respect to migration,

security and employment. .

A non-experimental, exploratory and cross-cut

quantitative study was carried out. A non-

probabilistic selection of 253 students from a public

university of the State of Mexico was carried out. The

criterion of inclusion-exclusion was to have been

written in the computer lab, to belong to a social

network and to seek information for the preparation

of tasks, works, practices, expositions, dynamics,

and thesis or research reports. 120 were women

(M = 19.5 years of age and SD = 3.15 years) and 133

men (M = 22.5 years of age and SD = 4.26 years).

Governance instrument of the Cyber Political

Culture of Carreón (2016) was used in this work. Two

subscales of perceptions and voting intention of

Carreón (2016) were used. The Consensus

Perceptions Scale included 14 items related to

expected benefits and consensus expectations. The

Voting Intentions Scale included 7 items related to the

election probabilities based on an electoral

preference.

The Delphi technique was used for the

homogenization of the concepts: 1) informative

synthesis, 2) contextualization; 3) comparison of

concepts and 4) integration of elements. Next, expert

judges evaluated the reagents, considering: -1 for

unfavourable information, 0 for unlinked

information, +1 for favourable data, suggesting the

modification or adjustment of the reagents. The

instrument was piloted with a small sample of students

before validation, protecting the dignity and integrity

of the parties involved in writing (see Annex A1 and

A2).

The corresponding permission was requested for

the application of the instrument in the classroom.

Once the students were told that the study would not

affect positively or negatively their partial or final

scores, they proceeded to give them the survey

advising that they had a maximum of 20 minutes to

respond to it. Subsequently, the respondents signed

their informed consent. The data were captured in

the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) and

the Analysis of Moments Structures (AMOS) software

in versions 10 and 6.0 respectively.

The multivariate analyses were carried out with

previous requirements of normal distribution,

reliability and validity for which the parameters of

kurtosis, alpha and factorial weight were used. Once

the psychometric properties were established, we

proceeded to estimate the correlations between each

of the eight factors with respect to themselves using

the «phi» statistic. The dependency ratios were

calculated with the parameter «beta» between the

factor and the indicators, as well as the use of the

«epsilon» statistic for the relations between

estimation errors and the manifested variables.

Finally, the contrast of the structural model was

performed with the parameters chi square, goodness

of fit and residual.

Results

Table 1 shows alpha values above the minimum

required to establish an internal consistency between

the scales, which in the case of expectations (alpha of

0.893) includes two factors: expected benefits (alpha

of 0.891 and 25% of the variance total explained)

and consensual expectations (alpha of 0.885 with

17% of the total variance explained). In the case of

the intention to vote (alpha of 0.880 and 28% of the

total variance explained).

ENRIQUE MARTÍNEZ-MUÑOZ, MARÍA DE LOURDES MORALES-FLORES Y CRUZ GARCÍA-LIRIOS: Governance of electoral preferences, consensus

and voting intention

• Vol. XII, Núm. 2 • Mayo-Agosto 2018 •

Table 1. Descriptions of the instrument.

R = Reactive, M = Mean, SD = Standard Deviation, SW = Swedness,

K = Kurtosis, Crombach’s alpha with values suppressing that of

the item. Extraction method: main axes, rotation promax. Adequacy

and Sphericity [X2 = 324.25 (45 gl) p = 0.000; KMO = 0.672]

F1 = Expected Benefits of the Electoral Contest (25% of the total

variance explained), F2 = Consensus Expectations (17% of the

total variance explained). F3 = Intention to vote (28% of the total

variance explained). Each item has response options such as: 0 =

unlikely, 1 = very unlikely, 2 = unlikely, 3 = probable, 4 = very likely.

Source: Elaborated with the data of the study.

However, the low correlations between item and

factor expressed in factorial weights indicate a simple

factorial structure of oblique type (Table 2).

The correlation between the factors or

dimensions - expected benefits and consensus

expectations of the Consensus Expectations Scale

seems to indicate an association between the expected

benefits of the electoral contests with respect to the

consensus expectations. In this sense, electoral

preferences would be the starting point to activate

the voting intention process, since it is consensus

expectations such as distrust, discontent, denunciation,

responsibility and social division that determine the

intention to vote.

Table 2. Correlations and covariations on the factors and indicators.

F1 = Expected Benefits of the Electoral Contest, F2 = Consensus

Expectations. F3 = Intention to vote: *p < .01; **p < .001; ***p < .0001

Source: self-made.

Finally, the adjustment and residual indicators

[X2 = 214.35 (47 gl) p = 0.007; GFI = 0.990; CFI =

0.997; RMSSEA = 0.001] suggest the acceptance of

the null hypothesis regarding the co-correspondence

between the theoretical relations of the variables

with respect to the findings.

Final Considerations

From an exploratory factorial structure of main

axes and with simple and oblique promax rotation in

which the correlations among the factors of the

Consensus Expectation Scale stand out, the present

work has provided a provisional model to the study

of the electoral preferences and their effects on the

intention to vote.

Non-experimental design and non-probabilistic

selection, however, limit the students’ results to the

public university of the State of Mexico. In this sense,

it is expected to carry out the test of the model in a

representative sample of students from the Mexican

city in order to anticipate the results of the state

elections to be held in 2017 and the federal elections

of 2018.

However, digital networks as a framework of

agendas, advertisements, opinions, preferences and

intentions, represent a small percentage of the

electorate that will participate in the aforementioned

elections. This is because unlike traditional media,

digital networks not only reproduce information but

also produce expectations in potential voters.

ENRIQUE MARTÍNEZ-MUÑOZ, MARÍA DE LOURDES MORALES-FLORES Y CRUZ GARCÍA-LIRIOS: Governance of electoral preferences, consensus

and voting intention

• Vol. XII, Núm. 2 • Mayo-Agosto 2018 •

Such a difference between the Internet, television,

radio, the press or cinema makes it necessary to

reflect on the studies of mass communication centred

on the establishment of agenda, the framing effect

and its consequences on the intentions to vote. The

study of the digital networks supposes a differentiation

of sectors even among the users of Facebook, Twitter,

YouTube and Instagram with respect to others of

digital networks.

Therefore, it is necessary to study in greater

depth the study of the similarities and differences of

internet users of digital networks with respect to

potential voters of the elections in question.

From an approach of political culture, understood

as the representations, dispositions, intentions and

behavior of the governed to their rulers and given

the context of the study scenario (Vieira, 2018: p. 46),

it is necessary to reorient the discussion of the findings

regarding the citizen formation as perceptions of

costs and benefits, as well as the construction of

agreements in the prevention of crime, the

procurement of justice and social rehabilitation,

indicators of governance.

That is, in a scenario in which the emergence of

electronic networks have been instrumented to guide

a certain political culture, indicated by the costs and

benefits of voting for an option that is directly related

to security, it is necessary to explore the dimensions

of the formation of that political culture in order to

anticipate scenarios of un-governability; conflicts

between the parties involved and negotiation

mechanisms.

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ENRIQUE MARTÍNEZ-MUÑOZ, MARÍA DE LOURDES MORALES-FLORES Y CRUZ GARCÍA-LIRIOS: Governance of electoral preferences, consensus

and voting intention

• Vol. XII, Núm. 2 • Mayo-Agosto 2018 •

Annex A1. Evaluation of expert couples on political culture: expectations and

intention of vote

Scale Cultural Policy (ECP-21) measured expectations and voting intentions trait s representations and

reflecting provisions against or in favor of an entity or political agent in relation to a security scenario.

The ECP-21 contains three key dimensions with 7 items each: Expectations of dissent and consensus on

security, expectations of costs and benefits, as well as voting intentions. The purpose of this test is to assess

each area in young adults from a university purple State of Mexico.

Instruction. Reading carefully each of the reagents and answer the correspondence question tem the

posed to the dimension n do is? , mark your answer with an (X) in the corresponding column. Make suggestions

to the subjects if you consider it relevant to improve the item.

Expectations of dissent and consensus: Refers to the tendencies people to observed and attribute to the

authorities a level of security, crime prevention, law enforcement and social rehabilitation disseminated in

electronic networks such as Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, WhatsApp, SnapChat or YouTube (Carreón, 2016).

Expectations of costs and benefits derived from security: It refers to the tendency of people to observe,

think and attribute to authorities the consequences of security policies disseminated in digital networks

(Carreón, 2016).

ENRIQUE MARTÍNEZ-MUÑOZ, MARÍA DE LOURDES MORALES-FLORES Y CRUZ GARCÍA-LIRIOS: Governance of electoral preferences, consensus

and voting intention

• Vol. XII, Núm. 2 • Mayo-Agosto 2018 •

Intention to vote: It refers to the tendency of people to observe, think and decide to vote for security policy

options disseminated in digital networks (Carreón, 2016).

Annex A2

Dear Student:

The Transdisciplinary Academic Network (ATN for its acronym in English) is conducting an opinion study

about the state elections to be held in the State of Mexico. A representative of our network will give you in

writing the guarantee that your answers will be anonymous and confidential, reminding you that there are no

correct or incorrect answers so we ask you to answer honestly to the following statements, considering:

0 = «not likely»

1 = «very unlikely»

2 = «unlikely»

3 = «probable»

4 = «very likely»

5 = «quite likely»

For example: if you consider that «the political parties that advertise the most in the digital networks will

get the vote of the young people», then you will have to cross the box that corresponds to the 5 «quite likely».

Or, if you assume that «the political parties that advertise the most on television will get the vote of the older

adults» then you must cross the same cell, although you may not agree and cross the opposite box.

Any questions or questions regarding the concepts, the pollster will gladly inform you about them.

ENRIQUE MARTÍNEZ-MUÑOZ, MARÍA DE LOURDES MORALES-FLORES Y CRUZ GARCÍA-LIRIOS: Governance of electoral preferences, consensus

and voting intention

• Vol. XII, Núm. 2 • Mayo-Agosto 2018 •

Este artículo es citado así:

Martínez-Muñoz, E., M. L. Morales-Flores y C. García-Lirios. 2018. Governance of electoral preferences, consensus and voting

intention. TECNOCIENCIA Chihuahua 12(2):76-85.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.54167/tch.v12i2.147

ENRIQUE MARTÍNEZ-MUÑOZ, MARÍA DE LOURDES MORALES-FLORES Y CRUZ GARCÍA-LIRIOS: Governance of electoral preferences, consensus

and voting intention

• Vol. XII, Núm. 2 • Mayo-Agosto 2018 •

Este artículo es citado así:

Alvarado-Raya, H. E. 2017. Peach seedling growth with mycorrhiza and vermicompost. TECNOCIENCIA Chihuahua 11(2):48-57.

Resumen curricular del autor y coautores

ENRIQUE MARTÍNEZ MUÑOZ. Realizó sus estudios de licenciatura en ingeniería, y el posgrado en la división de ciencias administrativas,

Universidad Autónoma del Estado de Hidalgo, misma institución donde está adscrito como profesor de tiempo completo e investigador

con perfil Promep. Ha desarrollado la línea de investigación de políticas organizacionales, siendo autor de diversas publicaciones en

revistas indexadas, ponencias en congresos y asesor de tesis de licenciatura y posgrado.

ARÍA DE

OURDES

ORALES

LORES

. Llevó a cabo sus estudios de trabajo social en la Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, así como

sus posgrados en la materia, cultivando la línea de cultura política y participación ciudadana. Es autora de más de 20 artículos

indexados y revisora de revistas.

CRUZ GARCÍA LIRIOS. Culminó su licenciatura en 2002 y en ese mismo año recibió el título de licenciado en psicología social por la

Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, campus Iztapalapa. Realizó estudios de maestría en la Escuela Nacional de Trabajo Social,

Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, misma universidad en la que cursó su doctorado en psicología social y ambiental. Desde

2007 está adscrito como profesor de asignatura en la Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México, Unidad Académica Profesional

Huehuetoca, Academia de Trabajo Social. Ha desarrollado la línea de investigación en cibercultura política. Ha dirigido tesis de

licenciatura, maestría y doctorado. Es autor de 22 artículos y 14 ponencias, 4 capítulos de libro y ha participado en dos proyectos de

investigación. Es evaluador y revisor de revistas indexadas.